Researchers at Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo (ESALQ-USP), Brazil have developed a new methodology to project how climate change will affect the physiology of livestock between 2050 and 2100. The research findings indicate that ruminant animals reared in the Northern Hemisphere are, and will be, the most impacted ones by heat stress. For Southern Hemisphere poultry production will be the most impacted chain by heat stress.
According to current estimations average temperature increase of 2 °C by 2050 will have major disruptions for agriculture, animal, and human health. The research findings are important to structuring public policies, decision making, and private sector actions to mitigate challenges in agricultural production and food security. These findings were published in the scientific journal Environmental Impact Assessment Review.
Northern and Southern Hemisphere Livestock Risks
As per the study, small ruminant animals will be more impacted by climate change in the Northern hemisphere than the same animals in the Southern hemisphere in the three analyzed scenarios (2050, 2075, and 2100). The study estimates an average increase of up to 68% in respiratory rate for animals in the north compared to those in the south. Ruminant animals reared in the Southern Hemisphere will increase their rectal temperature (core body temperature) as an adaptive response to climate change.
Our study provides crucial insights to guide animal production adaptation policies aimed at food security and environmental sustainability. We know that adaptations will need to be made, including management focused on the selection and conservation of genetic resources
In the Southern Hemisphere dairy cattle farming will be the most susceptible activity due to heat stress. Goats and beef cattle, with high phenotypic plasticity(a genotype’s ability to produce different phenotypes under varying environments), are the livestock most resilient to climate change. Quails and laying hens will be the most susceptible animals to climate change, with respiratory rates expected to increase by up to 40 beats per minute by 2100 in the Southern Hemisphere.
Animal adaptability is becoming a key focus in livestock production. In the Northern Hemisphere, efforts are underway to develop heat and disease resistant breeds, while in the Southern Hemisphere, selective breeding and crossbreeding aim to boost productivity and ensure food security for the growing population by century’s end.
Defining and Identifying Sustainable Livestock
According to Robson Mateus Freitas Silveira, a zootechnician from ESALQ-USP and the first author of the article, the series began by defining, for the first time, what a sustainable animal would be. He defined it as an animal with low net carbon emissions, efficient feed conversion, strong adaptability to any climate, and consistently healthy, high performance. The study is the fifth in a series of others already published from his thesis.
We developed a methodology to identify these (sustainable) animals, characterized them, and discussed them. Subsequently, we sought to identify phenotypic biomarkers to identify them.
For studying climate change impacts on thermoregulatory responses (physiological, metabolic, and behavioral adjustments the body makes to maintain a stable internal temperature), the scientists used 12 databases collected in Brazil, Italy, and Spain. These databases encompass biological, productive, and environmental data, which were standardized and analyzed using machine learning and multivariate analysis techniques. Initially researchers tabulated, organized, and standardized biological, productive, and environmental data. After this they studied adaptive responses and identified phenotypic biomarkers of livestock animals using exploratory factor analysis and multiple regression. The adaptive profile of different livestock animals was traced in both hemispheres.
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Then the researchers formulated intelligent models using machine learning and multivariate analysis, and used meteorological data to project climate scenarios according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in conjunction with the United Nations. IPCC is an international body that provides governments with scientific assessments of climate change, its impacts, and future risks.
Researchers studied livestock, including sheep, goats, dairy and beef cattle, pigs, poultry, and quail, analyzing their adaptive responses, including thermoregulatory, hematological, morphological, hormonal, and biochemical variables. These variables collectively indicate an animal’s health, adaptability, and productivity under varying environmental conditions. According to Iran José Oliveira da Silva hematological variables, as measured by complete blood tests, hematological variables are important biomarkers for studying animal adaptation to ambient temperature, even more so than coat morphology (physical structure, texture, and characteristics of an animal coat).
Need to Scale Livestock Adaptation for Climate Change
According to researchers, animal adaptation is necessary for addressing climate change scenarios, especially in regard to balancing production and resilience. Research concludes that Southern Hemisphere countries should scale investment in selecting biomarkers (detectable, measurable characteristic of the body), crossbreeding, and conservation of local breeds. The authors have found that the Northern Hemisphere is more productive but will be most affected by climate change impacts on livestock physiology.
The research reiterates the importance of integrating genetics, public policy, and sustainable innovation on a global scale for food security. For researchers, the study serves as a scientific basis for developing more sustainable and resilient animal production systems in line UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. The SDGs consist of 17 interconnected goals eradicate poverty, combat inequality and hunger, protect the environment and climate, and ensure justice for all. Alarming increases in population, greenhouse gas emissions, and deforestation, along with pressures on food systems and extreme weather events, highlight the shortcomings in achieving these goals.
Dairy cattle and poultry, whether for egg production or slaughter, will already suffer immediate effects on the production cycle. This is a warning sign for future production. That’s why it’s important to work together on genetics and the environment. We seek to analyze what will happen in the future to warn and alert producers, researchers, and public policymakers.
China, Brazil, and the USA, as the world’s leading meat producers, must intensify livestock production and adopt strategies to help animals withstand high temperatures. Despite increase in meat and poultry exports there is a urgent and necessary need to intensify the farming production system because livestock animals cannot withstand high temperatures.
In their study, the researchers faced difficulties with country databases, sometimes due to small sample sizes and different methodologies for collecting adaptive responses, in addition to the costs of laboratory analyses. Only rectal temperature and respiratory rate were common variables in the 12 databases. Another limitation is the lack of a database for ruminants and monogastrics (such as cattle, sheep, and poultry), particularly in China and the United States.
Iran José Oliveira da Silva explained that the work is just the tip of the iceberg. The researchers have collected the initial data and now they need to add partner databases and expand the information to different regions of the world, allowing them to compare and study the effects in other scenarios. For Silva, the next step is to collect data and phenotypic information on birds and pigs of different breeds throughout Brazil to build a database that can be used to predict how these animals will adapt and produce in response to environmental changes.