In a decision with sweeping implications for agriculture, power supply, and regional diplomacy, India has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. Signed in 1960, the treaty governed the usage and management of the Indus River system shared by the two countries. The abrupt move, triggered by a deadly terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir, has put this longstanding agreement “in abeyance,” signaling a shift in India’s approach to water diplomacy. The treaty has endured despite decades of conflict and even wars between India and Pakistan. In 2016, after a terror attack, India threatened to restrict water flow, but ultimately did not act on it.
The Indus Waters Treaty divides the river system between India and Pakistan, giving India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan the western ones (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). Pakistan benefits most, receiving about 80% of the total water flow, crucial for its agriculture. The treaty also allows limited use of each other’s rivers for irrigation and power. It was designed as a cooperative framework for water management. The World Bank helped facilitate the agreement to support both nations’ agriculture, industry, and drinking water needs.
While the geopolitical ramifications of this suspension are significant, its most immediate and potentially devastating impacts may be felt in Pakistan’s agriculture sector—particularly as the country prepares for its crucial kharif cropping season. From canal irrigation to crop planning and groundwater access, the suspension touches several aspects of Pakistan’s farming lifeline.
Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty: Timing and Water Flow Matter in Agriculture
The timing of India’s announcement could not have been more critical. South Asia’s southwest monsoon, a key source of rainfall and surface water, begins in late June or early July. Before that, agricultural operations—especially sowing and early growth—depend heavily on water drawn from rivers and reservoirs.
The Indus River is the backbone of Pakistan’s irrigation system, particularly in provinces like Punjab and Sindh, where cotton and rice cultivation dominate. Major reservoirs like the Tarbela dam in Pakistan currently hold less than 30% of their storage capacity. This shortfall is not new, but with India now legally freed from the obligations of the treaty, it could retain more water in its reservoirs, potentially restricting the downstream flow into Pakistan during a vital agricultural window.
As glaciers in the Himalayas begin melting in mid-May, water runoff typically helps fill India’s reservoirs. With India now in a position to hold back this water until at least September, Pakistan’s farmers might be left with less than they need to support their kharif crops, including rice and cotton—both vital to the country’s food security and economy.
Cotton and Rice: Key Crops Under Stress
The consequences of reduced water availability could be far-reaching for cotton farmers in Pakistan’s Punjab province, where sowing generally begins around mid-April. Cotton requires sufficient water not only to germinate but also to survive the harsh summer months. A shortfall in irrigation at this early stage could reduce the yield considerably. Pakistan, already grappling with a cotton supply deficit, might find its textile industry—one of the largest contributors to the national economy—under even more pressure.
Rice production faces an even greater threat. With Pakistan producing nearly 10 million tonnes of rice annually, a large portion of this depends on canal irrigation. The sowing of paddy starts around May 15, coinciding with the melting of glaciers and pre-monsoon preparations. Any disruption in canal water availability during this window could affect small and marginal farmers the most—those who lack access to borewells and rely exclusively on canal-fed systems. In Punjab and Sindh, this category comprises a significant portion of the farming population.
On the Indian side, states like Punjab have already been given the green light to start paddy sowing from mid-May. This pre-emptive step is also expected to help with crop rotation and reduce stubble burning between paddy and wheat seasons. The decision by India to release canal water internally could increase water availability for its farmers, potentially giving them a competitive edge in the global Basmati rice market, especially if Pakistan’s production falters.
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Electricity, Foreign Exchange, and the Hydropower Puzzle
Beyond agriculture, the treaty suspension could also strain Pakistan’s electricity generation capacity. Most of its hydropower comes from water stored in reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla. With water levels already low, any additional constraint on water flow could push the country to rely more heavily on fossil fuels—particularly coal—for power generation.
However, Pakistan’s precarious foreign exchange reserves limit its ability to import large quantities of coal or natural gas. This creates a double bind: not only will energy costs rise, but the availability of electricity might be threatened in urban and rural areas alike. Cities could face more frequent power outages, which would affect everything from food storage to agricultural logistics and processing.
Tensions Within Pakistan: Water Disputes Between Provinces
While India’s action is external, its consequences may amplify internal tensions within Pakistan. Water-sharing disputes between provinces, particularly Punjab and Sindh, are longstanding. With less water flowing into the system, these disputes could intensify, leading to administrative gridlock or even civil unrest.
Punjab is reportedly constructing two new reservoirs to address its water needs. But such infrastructure projects take time, and in the short term, the absence of a reliable, coordinated federal water-sharing mechanism could leave farmers in Sindh—located further downstream—with even less access to irrigation water.
Drinking Water: Urban Populations Could Also Be Hit
It’s not just agriculture and electricity that are at stake. A significant portion of Pakistan’s drinking water supply also comes from rivers and canals. Islamabad alone faces a 30% shortage in potable water, and many other cities depend heavily on canal systems for their daily supply. With a diminished inflow, this already fragile system could see disruptions, particularly during the peak summer months when demand surges.
Storage Crisis: Lower Snowfall and Future Risk
Adding to the uncertainty is this year’s lower-than-average snowfall in the catchment areas of the Indus and Jhelum rivers. According to Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority, snowfall was 31% below normal this winter. This naturally reduces the volume of water expected to flow downstream from melting glaciers, compounding the shortfall from the treaty suspension.
Pakistan experts have argued that India lacks the capacity to store all of the river water due to geographical and infrastructure limitations. However, India doesn’t need to block all the flow to make a significant impact. Simply altering the timing and volume of releases could disrupt Pakistan’s planning and agricultural calendar.
Food Security and Fragile Diplomacy
With Pakistan needing adequate water storage until the end of September to support its kharif crops, the current situation presents a formidable challenge. If the shortfall extends into the rabi season (October–March), which includes key crops like wheat and barley, the repercussions for food availability, inflation, and rural livelihoods could be severe.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is not just a political maneuver—it is a development with very real, tangible impacts for millions of farmers, agricultural workers, and urban consumers. As both countries reassess their diplomatic ties and water strategies, the ones left most vulnerable are those whose daily bread is tied directly to the flow of rivers. Whether this decision marks a short-term tactic or a longer-term shift remains to be seen, but what is clear is that its consequences will ripple through fields, canals, and households across Pakistan.
